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Consequence Modelling

Atmospheric Unintended Release Analysis

How far can a release reach?

Describe a leak of flammable or toxic material. AURA works out the release rate, the cloud or pool it forms, and the distances to fire, explosion and toxic effects.

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Cloud outline of a gas release seen from above Three nested outlines stretch downwind from the leak: the upper flammable limit, the lower flammable limit and half the lower flammable limit, against a distance scale in metres. 0 100 200 300 400 500 m downwind leak 0.5 LFL LFL UFL wind 5 m/s
Outline of a flammable gas cloud from a steady leak in a neutral atmosphere, seen from above. The width is drawn three times larger than the length.

From a leak to a hazard distance

Each step feeds the next, and every page shows the equations it used.

  1. The release

    Material, pressure, temperature, hole size or rate, tank and level.

  2. Source term

    Release rate, flashing, what stays airborne and what falls to the ground.

  3. Pool and cloud

    Pool spread and evaporation; dispersion for 2F, 5D or your own weather.

  4. Fire, blast, toxic

    Jet, pool, tank and flash fire; vapour cloud explosion; BLEVE; toxic exposure.

  5. Summary and report

    Every hazard distance in one table, cloud outlines, a printable report and CSV.

What it models

Each event has a published screening method and a choice of equation of state for the properties.

Release

Gas or liquid release
Orifice flow, choked or sub-sonic, with flash and rain-out.
Draining tank
Level, rate and mass against time for vertical, horizontal and spherical vessels.
Pressure vessel and pipe
Gas blowdown, pipe flow with friction, pipeline rupture and pumped lines.
Liquid pool
Spreading to a minimum depth or a bund; evaporating or boiling.

Cloud

Vapour cloud
Gaussian plume and puff; Britter-McQuaid for dense gas. Distances to LFL and UFL.
Toxic exposure
Toxic load and probit, indoors and outdoors. Distances to IDLH, ERPG and AEGL.

Fire

Jet fire
Flame length and distances to 37.5 down to 1.6 kW/m².
Pool and tank fire
Solid flame with tilt. Burn duration, cooling water and boilover time.
Flash fire
Reach, width, area and duration of the burning cloud.

Explosion

Vapour cloud explosion
TNT equivalence, TNO Multi-Energy and Baker-Strehlow-Tang.
BLEVE
Fireball size and dose, blast from the burst, fragment range.

Questions it answers

How far could this leak reach, and does it get to the control room?

Put a number on a hazard raised in a HAZID or HAZOP, so the action can be closed, kept or escalated.

Is this tank far enough from its neighbour, the fence and the muster point?

Radiation and overpressure distances for layout and separation.

Which area do we evacuate for a chlorine leak at night with light wind?

Distances to toxic limits and fatality levels for the weather cases you plan against.

How much cooling water does the next tank need?

Radiation on a neighbouring tank, cooling water flow, burn-out and boilover time.

Can this jet fire cause the LPG bullet beside it to fail?

Link a fire to the vessel it threatens and assess the BLEVE that could follow.

Which of these forty scenarios deserve detailed modelling?

Run them all, rank them by hazard distance, and send only the governing ones for detailed work.

Read the full note on what AURA is used for

What it is not for

  • Use it to screen and to check, not as the final basis for design, siting or emergency plans.
  • It gives consequences, not risk. It has no leak frequencies, ignition probabilities or population data.
  • It assumes flat, open ground. Buildings, terrain and congestion are not modelled, except as a class or a flame speed in the explosion methods.
  • Some library values and curves are starting values marked "verify". Check them against your own references first.

Start with your first scenario